Griffith, Parker race

Griffith, Parker race likely to be close
Voters may think more strategically this election
Thursday, July 17, 2008
By PATRICIA C. McCARTER
Times Staff Writer, patricia.mccarter@htimes.com

The morning after his Republican opponent was chosen for the 5th District congressional race, state Sen. Parker Griffith held a press conference to present a $5,000 state grant to the Madison County Veterans Memorial.

It got him free air time on local television to appeal to the military-friendly masses who will elect North Alabama’s next congressman.

Because he’s already an elected official, he may have a leg up on Huntsville insurance executive Wayne Parker, who won the Republican nomination Tuesday for the congressional seat 4 to 1 over attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie of Huntsville.

Griffith, a retired cancer specialist, draws media attention and name recognition by virtue of being a state senator for the past two years.

It’s an advantage that Parker – the son-in-law of former Republican congressional heavyweight Bill Archer of Texas – hopes to overcome with the conservative stance often favored by communities whose economies are tied to the space and defense industries.

But has the political pendulum swung far enough for voters to elect the district’s second Republican congressman since just after the Civil War?

Political scientist Jess Brown thinks it has.

Parker "certainly has a strong chance," said the Athens State University professor. "I’m not saying it is now a Republican district, but voters are definitely conservative enough to elect a Republican, especially on lifestyle issues like crime, gay marriage, immigration and abortion.

"But when you move to strictly economic issues, I’d have to say it’s not nearly as conservative. It’s more like liberalism lite, or economic populism."

Brown predicts the presidential election will play a role in who will take the place of U.S. Rep. Bud Cramer, a Huntsville Democrat who has represented the 5th District for 18 years.

With presumed Democratic nominee Barack Obama of Illinois on the ballot, Brown said African American voters and voters under 35 will turn out in record numbers, "something no demographic would have done if Hillary Clinton had gotten the nomination.

"If they’re voting for Obama, there’s a good chance they’ll vote for Parker Griffith," he said. "It could be enough for a percentage point or two."

And that could make all the difference in a close race, which Brown suggests the Griffith/Parker match-up could be.

But Republican presidential nominee John McCain of Arizona has coattails, too, Brown said.

"His military background and war hero status will provide some benefits to other Republicans on the ballot in November," he said.

To counteract the Obama factor, Brown said Parker’s campaign needs to tie Griffith to the most liberal Democrats, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The party makeup of the next Congress could determine how some 5th District voters lean.

Those thinking most strategically might decide that sending a Democrat to represent North Alabama could be the best thing for the area’s defense and space concerns.

"Every political prognosticator from Maine to Hawaii is saying that the Democrats will have the largest majority in Congress since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House," Brown said.

"Who do you want knocking on the doors of the D’s, a Republican or a Democrat?

"Your two senators, your governor and the other U.S. representative from North Alabama (the 4th District’s Robert Aderholt of Haleyville) are all Republican, so do you as a defense contractor really want to send another Republican up there?"

Or, he asked, do you decide to vote for the candidate "anointed by Bud Cramer’s people" because Cramer has thus far protected the region’s defense interests?

"Normally, the defense industry would want to send a Republican up there, but this is a different Congress," Brown said.

"I think voters will be thinking more strategically this time, not just on which guy they like best."